In 2025, President Trump pushed Republican-led states to find advantages in 2026’s elections by redrawing congressional maps. The outcome may determine which party controls the House after midterms.
JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
One of the big topics in politics this year has been redistricting. President Trump set off a race to reshape the voting map before next year’s congressional elections. He’s been pushing Republican lawmakers across the country to redistrict so their party can hold on to the House. That is key to his MAGA agenda. For a look at where it all stands, we’re joined now by Andrew Schneider of Houston Public Media. Hi there.
ANDREW SCHNEIDER, BYLINE: Hello.
SUMMERS: So, Andrew, I want to get into the big picture, but let’s start where you are in Texas. How did this all first start there?
SCHNEIDER: Well, in the summer, President Trump called on Texas Republicans to redraw the voting lines to help the GOP win five more House seats. There’s a heavily Republican legislature, a Republican governor, Greg Abbott. They were both eager to do it. You might remember Democratic lawmakers even left the state for two weeks to delay the vote, but eventually it passed, and the race was on. California Democrats countered. They held a special election last month where voters approved redistricting that could flip five seats there for Democrats. Republicans in North Carolina and Missouri also did it to favor their party. States normally redistrict at the start of the decade when the census comes in and shows how many seats each state gets based on their population. And experts we’ve talked with say the country hasn’t seen a year with this much mid-decade redistricting since the 1970s, when the courts set out the rules for how it works now.
SUMMERS: Can we say who’s ahead at this point?
SCHNEIDER: Well, so far, the GOP states, prompted by Trump, have used redistricting to get an advantage in flipping seven seats held by the Democrats. Then in Ohio, they had to redistrict this year because of a state law there. That could help them win two. So that’s nine seats tilted towards the Republicans. Now, to the Democrats, they did those five in California. And in Utah, a court ordered a new map. That could help Democrats win a seat there. So that’s six tilted towards the Democrats versus nine towards the Republicans. But something surprising has happened this month. The heavily Republican Indiana legislature rejected Trump’s redistricting, even after Trump threatened a campaign against Republicans who didn’t support it. Lawmakers in Kansas are also hesitating to do it.
SUMMERS: Andrew, why would states oppose joining the scramble?
SCHNEIDER: Well, the word many use for this is gerrymandering, where politicians are shifting votes around explicitly to help their party. Now, I spoke with Justin Levitt at Loyola Marymount University’s Loyola Law School. He’s a voting rights expert and an adviser on them in the Biden administration, and he says it’s harmful.
JUSTIN LEVITT: You take away people’s ability to give a thumbs up or thumbs down on how their representatives have performed. And the more frequently you do that, the more you disconnect elected representatives from the people that they represent, the more you sever the relationship between we the people and our elected representatives. That’s not a good thing for any of us.
SCHNEIDER: Now, redistricting can also be risky because if a party goes for too many seats, it can actually make safe ones they hold more competitive, like swing districts. You don’t know how people will actually vote. For example, in Texas, a lot of Latinos voted for Trump in 2024, and Republicans drew the lines based on that, but some Latinos might turn back to the Democrats in 2026.
SUMMERS: Yeah, I mean, that’s a fair point. We’re not going to know how any of this turns out until people actually vote next November. Looking ahead, what could be coming up in 2026?
SCHNEIDER: Well, Democrats in Virginia and Maryland are looking at redistricting to help their party, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says his state will try to tip seats towards the GOP. And there’s a voting rights case before the U.S. Supreme Court that could allow more Republican states to redistrict. And like you said, it comes down to actual votes in November. So let’s say Republicans gain an edge in a few seats through redistricting. That won’t matter if there’s a wave election with one party sweeping the vote around the country. But right now, Republicans only hold the House by a few seats. So if the midterms are close, that could make all the difference.
SUMMERS: Andrew Schneider of Houston Public Media, thanks so much.
SCHNEIDER: You’re welcome.
Copyright © 2025 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.
Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
